By: Agetha Lestari
The ecological disaster that struck Sumatra in late November and early December 2025 serves as a reflection of the state’s failure to protect the people’s living space.
Data from the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) as of December 9, 2025, recorded that this disaster impacted 3.2 million people, with the total death toll reaching approximately 964, 262 people still missing, and over 5,000 injured across all affected regions (Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra). Nearly one million residents were displaced across 52 regencies/cities, while hundreds of residential areas, roads, bridges, schools, and public facilities were severely damaged or swept away by the currents.
Although this tropical cyclone triggered massive rainfall, experts from Gadjah Mada University (UGM) emphasized that the root of the problem lies upstream with the destruction of the forest ecosystems in the Watersheds (DAS), leaving them unable to hold water.
This destruction is not merely a natural process, but rather the result of failed policies, systematic negligence, and state decisions that prioritize the profits of a few over the safety of millions of its people.
The Job Creation Law (UUCK) passed by the state even revoked Article 18 of Law 26/2007, which mandated the protection of at least 30 percent of the forest area in every watershed or island. Without that legal protection, clearing forests upstream becomes easier, faster, and more extensive, leaving a fragile living space for humans and nature.
In fact, upstream forests are life-support systems. Research in the tropical forests of Kalimantan and Sumatra shows that tree roots can retain up to 35 percent of rainwater.
Consequently, when the forest is reduced past a critical limit, slopes lose their grip. Bare soil is unable to hold the rain, and floods turn into massive torrents dragging logs, soil, and the long trail of exploitation that has long been veiled under the term ‘development.’
This disaster in Sumatra is not just a heavy rainfall event, but a warning that our ecological protection system is fragile to its core. This event also did not just fall from the sky; it arose from policies that allow nature to lose its vitality.
Evidence of Deforestation through Logs
The massive logs carried by the floods serve as direct evidence that this disaster cannot simply be labeled a ‘natural phenomenon.’ The currents carrying large-diameter tree trunks indicate significant logging in the upstream areas.
Based on spatial analysis by Kaoem Telapak with Nusantara Atlas, over the past year (2024 – 2025), regions in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra lost approximately 76,306 hectares of forest. Meanwhile, WALHI’s analysis in December 2025 showed that during the 2016 – 2025 period, about 1.4 million hectares of forest were lost in these three provinces. This area is roughly equivalent to half of West Java Province or 21 times the size of DKI Jakarta.
This forest loss cannot be separated from the permits issued by the state. Spatial data as of December 2025, processed by Kaoem Telapak, indicates nearly a thousand recorded concession permits issued by the state in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra, ranging from palm oil plantations and mining to PBPH (Forest Utilization Business Permits).
These thousands of permits paved the way for extractive industries to expand into living spaces that should be protected. Permits that were supposed to regulate have instead become a pathway for destruction, accelerating forest loss, disrupting the balance of nature, increasing surface water runoff, and heightening the risk of flash floods and landslides that are now striking millions of people, claiming their lives and their futures.
The logs dragged by the currents confirm the destruction of the forest as an upstream area; subsequently, the loss of tree roots leaves the soil fragile and prone to landslides, thereby adding mud volume to the flash floods when hit by high rainfall. The fatalities resulting from this disaster are victims of weak laws, lax permit oversight, and the unchecked expansion of extractive industries into zones that should be protected.
The impact of deforestation does not stop at lost lives and ruined ecosystems, but also piles up as an economic burden on the state. The Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) estimates state losses at Rp 68.67 trillion, ranging from damaged infrastructure and crop failures to the halt of the community’s economic activities.
This figure shatters the claim that clearing forests drives ‘development’ and regional economic growth. In reality, recovery costs are proven to be far greater than the profits of the extractive sector—which are only enjoyed by a select few—while millions of people bear the risk, losing their lives and their futures.
When more than 3 million citizens are affected, with nearly a thousand dead, hundreds still missing, and massive state losses in this humanitarian crisis, one question arises: Why hasn’t the central government declared a National Disaster status?
The Withholding of the National Disaster Status
Legally, the determination of a National Disaster Status falls under the framework of Law Number 24 of 2007. This regulation affirms that a national status is not determined solely by the number of victims or the extent of the damage, but by whether the regional government is still capable of executing emergency response commands.
The central government can only take over when regional capacity completely ceases to function, when coordination breaks down, logistics cannot be managed, and basic services cannot be provided. On paper, these criteria seem clear.
However, the situation in Sumatra prompts a question: In a situation where national roads are cut off, bridges are washed away, villages are isolated, aid is stalled for days to the point that Search and Rescue (SAR) teams cannot enter, and people are starving, enduring illness, and surviving on dwindling supplies, isn’t that proof of regional incapacity?
Even so, the government insists that as long as communication and administrative coordination are still running, a national status is not yet necessary. Yet, beyond the official explanation, public opinion has grown more critical, with circulating suspicions that the delay of this disaster status is an attempt to avoid a full investigation into the causes of the disaster.
This is because if this status is declared, the government cannot avoid an audit of mining and plantation permits in the upstream watersheds, the forest clearing processes, corporate networks operating in vulnerable areas, and potential deviations in forestry governance. Concession documents, AMDAL (Environmental Impact Assessment) data, deforestation maps, and corporate track records would become subjects of open scrutiny.
Furthermore, a national status also has the potential to attract the international spotlight. Global media and environmental organizations could assess how Indonesia manages disaster-prone areas, and economic and diplomatic pressure could be directed at corporations involved in global supply chains. This political and economic sensitivity is suspected of causing the central government to delay the decision, even as casualties and damage continue to mount.
To date, BNPB states that regional capacity is still sufficient, but field reports show that many areas have remained untouched by aid for days. This contradiction strengthens public suspicion regarding the withheld national disaster status.
At this point, we need to ask again: Are the decisions made by the state fully aligned with protecting the people who are struggling through their most difficult days?
Demanding Transparency and Accountability
This event in late 2025 serves as a reminder that an approach to development based on land exploitation is no longer sustainable. The ecological, economic, and social losses are far greater than the short-term gains obtained from the extractive sector.
To restore Sumatra’s ecological balance, demands for transparency can no longer be delayed. Without an independent audit of the destruction in the upstream watersheds and permit governance, the root of the problem will never be touched.
Without decisive action, Indonesia is merely waiting for the time to be struck again by a similar disaster, potentially on an even larger scale. The ruined upstream will once again send a message of destruction downstream, and every message is always paid for with lives, loss, and massive devastation.
